Oscar Major Category Odds: Less Than a Week to Go

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Following up on Mitch Salem’s Best Picture overview, here’s an updated look at the odds for the major Oscar categories.

After its winning streak at the various guild award ceremonies, Argo has traded places with Lincoln as the favorite for Best Picture.  London bookmakers would pay $1.15 on a $1 bet if Argo wins, a movement of +6 in the “Trend” column (a measurement of the difference between the extreme payout values for each nominee).  Lincoln has a negative trend value of -4, but Zero Dark Thirty wins the Boulevard of Broken Dreams Award with a -85 trend, moving from a $5.50 payout in the beginning of the year to a $90 long shot payout now.

Steven Spielberg has become even more of a favorite, moving to a $1.25 payout for Best Director.  However, the most interesting movement has been Ang Lee for Life of Pi, moving from afterthought to reasonable contender.

Daniel Day-Lewis is approaching near certainty, while Denzel Washington is the biggest negative mover in the Best Actor category, moving from somewhat of a contender in early January to the biggest long shot in the field now.  Christoph Waltz wins the Coming Out of Nowhere Award, with a very strong +16 trend, moving into a near tie with Tommy Lee Jones in the Best Supporting Actor race.

Jennifer Lawrence remains the clear favorite for Best Actress.  As Jessica Chastain has faded a bit, Emannuelle Riva has picked up some steam, but it won’t be enough.  In the Best Supporting Actress category, Anne Hathaway is the surest of sure things, according to London.  Maybe by Sunday the payout for her will move to $1.0001.