The continents drift, and so does the boxoffice.
OPENINGS: ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT (20th), at $16.5M, was 25% below the opening for Ice Age 2, and lower than the first Friday of Ice Age 3 (which opened on a Wednesday), but the franchise gets the overwhelming bulk of its revenue from overseas–something like 70%–so unless that lack of interest is shared internationally, the shortfall won’t mean much to the movie’s bottom line.
HOLDOVERS: THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN (Sony) held very well, down 50% to $10.3M from last Friday (although because the movie opened the preceding Tuesday, Friday-to-Friday comparisons are of limited use). The original Transformers, which was the last blockbuster to open in a year (2007) when July 4th was on a Wednesday, fell 52% on its 2d Friday. which stabilized to a 48% drop for the weekend. A slightly softer 45% drop for Spidey would put it on track for $260-270M in the US–unless a certain caped gentleman makes it plummet next weekend. However, by the end of today, Amazing will be running behind all 3 of the Sam Raimi Spider-Man series, and it’s unlikely to make up that ground.
SAVAGES (Universal) should have a standard 50% Weekend 2 drop and eke its way to $50M, leaving the possibility of profit for international results. KATY PERRY: PART OF ME (Paramount) won’t get much higher than $25M, and even with a small production budget, that won’t make it a successful venture once marketing costs are counted.
TED (Universal) continues to demonstrate the enchantments of a foul-mouthed teddy bear, as it heads to $200M in the US. MAGIC MIKE (Warners) seems to have stabilized after a weird up-and-down first couple of weeks, and will make over $100M, a terrific result for a movie that cost $7M to produce. BRAVE (Pixar/Disney) wasn’t damaged by the arrival of Ice Age 4; it’s still running parallel with WALL-E, and should beat that film’s $223M total. MADAGASCAR 3 (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount), already over $200M in the US, lost 25% of its theatres and took a heavier hit.
LIMITED RELEASES: MOONRISE KINGDOM (Focus/Universal) added a few more theatres and held very well, with what should be a $3500-4K average at 924 theatres. TO ROME WITH LOVE (Sony Classics) lost some theatres, and while it’s no Midnight In Paris-level smash, it’s holding nicely, with what should be a $3K average at 744, and could get to the $15-20M boxoffice level, which Midnight aside would be quite strong for a recent Woody Allen picture. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (Fox Searchlight) had its first significant expansion to 81 theatres, and is settling into its niche with a decent $9K per-theatre average, considerably below the $16K average that Moonrise had in a similar number of theatres, not to mention the $15K average Best Exotic Marigold Hotel had at 178. Given the aggressively art-house style of Beasts, this isn’t a big surprise. The most promising of the new arrivals is FAREWELL MY QUEEN (Cohen Media), heading for a $10K average at 6–although that may have been boosted by opening night Q&As. Despite rave reviews, EASY MONEY (Weinstein) is only on track for a $5K average at 2.
NEXT WEEKEND: Wait, it’ll come to me… oh, right: a little indie called THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (Warners) will make its unobtrusive appearance.
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