March 31, 2012



UPDATEThe Deadline numbers have shifted quite a bit from their earlier incarnation:  HUNGER GAMES is now estimated at $19.5M for Friday (a 71% drop from opening day) and a $55M weekend (down 64%).  If that number holds, GAMES would have the 11th highest 2d weekend ever, although only $200K away from the Top 10.  WRATH OF THE TITANS has been upped to a $12M Friday, and somewhat puzzlingly, all the way up to a $37M weekend.  MIRROR MIRROR has been reduced slightly to a $6M Friday and $21M weekend.

The only question about Friday’s boxoffice is whether THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate/Summit) was exceptional or extraordinary.  The Hollywood Reporter has the movie’s 2d Friday at $20-23M, which would be a 67-70% drop–much better than it sounds, because opening day included almost $20M in Thursday midnight grosses.  In comparison, The Dark Knight went down 65% on its 2d Friday, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 declined 66%, Twilight: New Moon fell 75%, Breaking Dawn Part 1 dropped 77%, and Deathly Hallows Part 2 fell 84%.  The Reporter estimates a $64M weekend, which would be a 58% decline and the 5th highest 2d weekend in history, behind only Avatar, Dark Knight, Shrek 2 and Spider-Man

The really aggressive estimate, though, is at Deadline, where Hunger Games‘ Friday is reported as $24M (a 65% decline from opening day, as good as Dark Knight‘s), and the weekend is predicted to reach $75M.  That number would put it in line to be one of the top 3 2d weekends of all time, pennies away from Avatar ($75.6M) and Dark Knight ($75.2M).  
What’s clear without doubt is that Hunger Games will win its second consecutive weekend. Both the Reporter and Deadline have WRATH OF THE TITANS (Warners) at about $11M for Friday, a softer than expected opening that probably means a weekend that will struggle to reach $30M.  That would be less than 40% of the $28.7M opening day for Clash of the Titans 2 years ago, and means the entire weekend may barely outgross Clash‘s opening day.
Bringing up the rear of the weekend’s releases is MIRROR MIRROR (Relativity), with a $6.5-7M Friday that–thanks to expected strength at Saturday matinees–should translate into a $22-24M weekend, not great for an $80M production, but also not unexpected.  
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."