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UPDATE: The Deadline numbers have shifted quite a bit from their earlier incarnation: HUNGER GAMES is now estimated at $19.5M for Friday (a 71% drop from opening day) and a $55M weekend (down 64%). If that number holds, GAMES would have the 11th highest 2d weekend ever, although only $200K away from the Top 10. WRATH OF THE TITANS has been upped to a $12M Friday, and somewhat puzzlingly, all the way up to a $37M weekend. MIRROR MIRROR has been reduced slightly to a $6M Friday and $21M weekend.
The only question about Friday’s boxoffice is whether THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate/Summit) was exceptional or extraordinary. The Hollywood Reporter has the movie’s 2d Friday at $20-23M, which would be a 67-70% drop–much better than it sounds, because opening day included almost $20M in Thursday midnight grosses. In comparison, The Dark Knight went down 65% on its 2d Friday, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 declined 66%, Twilight: New Moon fell 75%, Breaking Dawn Part 1 dropped 77%, and Deathly Hallows Part 2 fell 84%. The Reporter estimates a $64M weekend, which would be a 58% decline and the 5th highest 2d weekend in history, behind only Avatar, Dark Knight, Shrek 2 and Spider-Man.
The really aggressive estimate, though, is at Deadline, where Hunger Games‘ Friday is reported as $24M (a 65% decline from opening day, as good as Dark Knight‘s), and the weekend is predicted to reach $75M. That number would put it in line to be one of the top 3 2d weekends of all time, pennies away from Avatar ($75.6M) and Dark Knight ($75.2M).
What’s clear without doubt is that Hunger Games will win its second consecutive weekend. Both the Reporter and Deadline have WRATH OF THE TITANS (Warners) at about $11M for Friday, a softer than expected opening that probably means a weekend that will struggle to reach $30M. That would be less than 40% of the $28.7M opening day for Clash of the Titans 2 years ago, and means the entire weekend may barely outgross Clash‘s opening day.
Bringing up the rear of the weekend’s releases is MIRROR MIRROR (Relativity), with a $6.5-7M Friday that–thanks to expected strength at Saturday matinees–should translate into a $22-24M weekend, not great for an $80M production, but also not unexpected.
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!
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