WEEKEND ACTUALS: In Line with Studio Estimates; Week Better than Forecast

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>Compared to the ShowbuzzDaily Forecasts (which called for a tie between the movies opening this weekend), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules slightly exceeded the forecast and Sucker Punch slightly missed the forecast (turning the tie into a $5 million victory for Diary).  In their second week, Limitless and Lincoln Lawyer both exceeded their forecasts, declining 20% or less from their opening weekend numbers.  Weekend actuals were generally in line with Studio Estimates, with most movies within a few hundred thousand dollars of the estimate.   


March 25-27, 2010    Showbuzz      Studio         Weekend
                     Forecast     Estimate         Actual
Diary Wimpy Kid 2(Fox) $21.5        $24.4          $23.8
Sucker Punch (WB)      $22          $19.0          $19.1
Limitless (Rel)        $11          $15.2          $15.1
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)    $8.5         $11.0          $10.8
Rango (Par)            $10          $ 9.8          $ 9.8
Battle: LA (Sony)      $7           $ 7.6          $ 7.6
Paul (Uni)             $7           $ 7.5          $ 7.9

Top 7 Total            $87          $94.5          $94.1

In limited release, Miral opened with an average $16,561 at 4 theaters, Potiche opened with $12,143 at 7 theaters, My Perestroika opened with $17,680 at 1 theater, and Mia and the Migoo opened with $16,975 at 1 theater.  All solid but not extraordinary numbers.

So where are we versus previous years?  All films playing between March 21 and 27 grossed $148 million, down 4% from the 2007-10 average for the comparable week and down only 2% from the same week in 2010.  Year to date, all films are down 7% from the comparable four-year average but still down a jaw-dropping 20% from 2010’s box office numbers (propelled of course by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland).