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Compared to the ShowbuzzDaily Forecasts, the weekend numbers for the three opening movies were in the right rank order, although Hop vastly exceeded its forecast. Source Code and Insidious were much closer to their predictions. At the end of the day, Hop should be considered a success for Universal, the ultra-low cost Insidious will be a success for newcomer FilmDistrict, and Source Code will be a moderate disappointment for Summit. In their second week, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules and Sucker Punch both declined more than expected in their second week. Weekend actuals were down a bit from Studio Estimates — for example, Universal’s numbers yesterday were roughly $500,000 higher than the actuals. (The higher number on Sunday was just enough for Universal to claim Hop‘s opening was higher than Rango‘s.) This is an example of studio “rounding up,” a topic discussed on Showbuzz Basics.
April 1-3, 2010 Showbuzz Studio Weekend
Forecast Estimate Actual
Hop (Uni) $24.5 $38.2 $37.5
Source Code (Sum) $15 $15.1 $14.8
Insidious (FilmDis) $10.5 $13.5 $13.3
Diary Wimpy Kid 2(Fox) $11.5 $10.2 $10.0
Limitless (Rel) $10 $ 9.4 $ 9.3
Lincoln Lawyer (LG) $ 8 $ 7.1 $ 6.8
Sucker Punch (WB) $ 7.5 $ 6.1 $ 6.0
Rango (Par) n/a $ 4.6 $ 4.5
Paul (Uni) n/a $ 4.3 $ 4.2
Battle: LA (Sony) n/a $ 3.5 $ 3.5
Adjustment Bureau(Uni) n/a $ 2.2 $ 2.2
Red Riding Hood (WB) n/a $ 1.8 $ 1.8
Top 7 (Forecast) Total $87 $99.6 $97.7
Limited Release Openings
In limited release, In a Better World was the best of the bunch, opening with a decent but not great $8,2656 average at 4 theaters. Queen to Play opened with $4,682 at 6 theaters, Super opened with $4,232 at 11 theaters, and Trust opened with an average $2,079 at 28 theaters. Finally, The Last Godfather tanked with a $1,776 average at 58 theaters, and Cat Run bombed with an average $291 at 103 locations.
The Past Week
Mar 28-Apr 3 (millions)
4yr vs vs
2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2010
Week #13 $232 $174 $148 -15% -36%
Year to Date $2872 $2467 $2272 – 8% -21%
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