Weekend Studio Estimates (10.10-12.2014)

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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #41 of 2014 looks like a still very strong $137 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, just a shade below yesterday’s estimate ($138 million) and a still hefty 29% above the norm for this weekend ($106 million).  

Opening at 2,885 theaters, Dracula Untold from Universal grossed $8.9 million Friday and is on track for a $23.5 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $14.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward an above average $8,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is not supportive (26% positive overall and a mere 5% positive with top critics). Dracula Untold is headed for $58 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,088 theaters, Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day  from Disney grossed $5.2 million Friday and is on track for a $19.1 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $18.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average $6,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is fairly positive (64% positive overall and 69% positive with top critics). Alexander… is headed for $83 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,003 theaters, The Judge from Warner Brothers grossed $2.8 million Friday and is on track for a $13.3 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $15.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a below average $4,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is split (48% positive overall and 48% positive with top critics). The Judge is headed for $40 million total domestic.

Opening at 846 theaters, Addicted from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $2.1 million Friday and is now on track for a $7.6 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $7.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good $8,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is starting out negative (20% positive overall with very few reviews so far). Addicted is headed for $18 million total domestic.

Gone Girl is headed for $26.8 million this weekend (down 29% from last weekend and somewhat above our $22.3 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted up to $153 million.  Annabelle is headed for $16.4 million this weekend (down 56% from last weekend and a touch below our $17.0 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Annabelle has been adjusted to $95 million.  The Equalizer is headed for $9.7 million this weekend (down 48% from last weekend and slightly below our $10.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Equalizer has been adjusted to $107 million.  The Maze Runner is headed for $7.5 million this weekend (down 36% from last weekend and very near our $7.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Maze Runner has been adjusted up to $100 million.    

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Total Box Office Volume