Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #40 of 2014 looks like $142 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, even better than yesterday’s estimate ($129 million) and now 37% above the norm for this weekend ($104 million). A great start for the fall movie season with two new films opening to different demographics and growing the box office. The race between Gone Girl and Annabelle is not over — it could be a photo finish Monday when the actual numbers for Sunday are counted and the final weekend numbers are certified.
Opening at 3,014 theaters, Gone Girl from 20th Century Fox grossed $13.2 million Friday and $15.2 million Saturday, now on track for a $38.0 million opening three-day weekend (above our $31.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good $12,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is quite positive (87% positive overall and 81% positive with top critics). Gone Girl is headed for $117 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,185 theaters, Annabelle from Warner Brothers/New Line grossed $15.5 million Friday and $14.0 million Saturday, now on track for a $37.2 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $27.0 million forecast and with a legitimate shot at catching or passing Gone Girl in the official numbers Monday when Sunday is counted for real). The film is pacing toward an impressive $11,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mostly negative (30% positive overall and 36% positive with top critics), but the decent Saturday hold might indicate word of mouth from real people might trump critical opinion. Annabelle is headed for $98 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,820 theaters, Left Behind from Freestyle Releasing grossed $2.4 million Friday and is on track for a $6.8 million opening three-day weekend (a touch above our $6.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a really bad $3,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hateful (2% positive overall and 0% positive with top critics). Left Behind is headed for $10 million total domestic if the wind blows right.
The Equalizer is headed for $19.0 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend and somewhat above our $17.0 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Equalizer has been adjusted up to $113 million. The Boxtrolls is headed for $12.4 million this weekend (down 28% from last weekend and now somewhat above our $10.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Boxtrolls has been adjusted to $66 million. The Maze Runner is headed for $12.0 million this weekend (down 31% from last weekend and above our $9.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Maze Runner has been adjusted to $101 million.
| Weekend 40: October 3-5, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Gone Girl | Fox | [31.5] | 36.5 | 38.0 | 13.2–15.2 | 117 | |
| Annabelle | WB | [27.0] | 31.0 | 37.2 | 15.5–14.0 | 98 | |
| The Equalizer | Sony | [17.0] | 17.5 | 19.0 | 5.6–8.5 | 113 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | [10.4] | 10.4 | 12.4 | 2.7–5.9 | 66 | |
| The Maze Runner | Fox | [9.8] | 11.5 | 12.0 | 3.4–5.5 | 101 | |
| Left Behind | Free | [6.0] | 7.0 | 6.8 | 2.4–n/a | 10 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | [4.2] | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.2–1.8 | 38 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | [2.9] | 3.0 | 3.5 | .80–1.8 | 45 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [2.7] | 3.0 | 3.0 | .80–1.4 | 335 | |
| No Good Deed | Sony | [2.1] | 2.4 | 2.5 | .74–1.2 | 52 | |
| A Walk Among the Tombstones | Uni | [—] | 2.0 | 2.0 | .60–n/a | 28 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $142 million total Friday-Sunday, up 37% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 23% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 40 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $142 | Gone Girl $38.0, Annabelle $37.2, Left Behind $6.8 | |
| 2013 | $115 | Gravity $55.8, Runner Runner $7.7, Pulling Strings $2.5 | |
| 2012 | $133 | Taken 2 $49.5, Frankenweenie $11.4 | |
| 2011 | $85 | Real Steel $27.3, Ides of March $10.5 | |
| 2010 | $81 | Social Network $22.4, Case 59 $5.4, Let Me In $5.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $104 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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