Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #51 of 2014 now looks like $127 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up slightly from yesterday’s estimate ($126 million) and now up 5% from the norm for this weekend ($121 million) but down -8% from the same weekend last year.
Continuing at 3,875 theaters, The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies from Warner Brothers is now on track for a $56.2 million opening three-day weekend (slightly better than it looked yesterday but still below our $64.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $14,500 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Including Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total $90.6 million through Sunday for the first five days (also well below our $110 million forecast). Critical sentiment is somewhat positive (61% positive overall and 49% positive with top critics). Battle of the Five Armies is headed for $229 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,785 theaters, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb from 20th Century Fox is now on track for a $17.3 million opening three-day weekend (worse than it looked yesterday and well below our $27.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a below average $4,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is split (49% positive overall and 50% positive with top critics). Night at the Museum 3 is headed for $98 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,116 theaters, Annie from Sony is now on track for a $16.3 million opening three-day weekend (worse than yesterday’s estimate and now a touch below our $17.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre $5,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (28% positive overall and 16% positive with top critics), but the audience reportedly gave it an A- CinemaScore (although that methodology tends to be skewed positively since the sample is strangely restricted to opening night audiences only ). Annie is headed for $89 million total domestic.
| Weekend 51: December 19-21, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | [64.5] | 54.0 | 56.2 | 16.6–21.4 | 229 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | [27.0] | 19.2 | 17.3 | 5.6–6.5 | 98 | |
| Annie | Sony | [17.5] | 17.5 | 16.3 | 5.3–6.1 | 89 | |
| Exodus: Gods and Kings | Fox | [10.5] | 7.7 | 8.1 | 2.3–3.2 | 65 | |
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | [6.9] | 7.8 | 7.8 | 2.3–3.2 | 315 | |
| Wild | Fox S | [3.6] | 3.8 | 4.2 | 1.2–1.7 | 49 | |
| Top Five | Par | [4.3] | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.1–1.5 | 44 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [3.5] | 3.3 | 3.6 | .88–1.5 | 207 | |
| Penguins of Madagascar | Fox/DWA | [3.8] | 3.4 | 3.5 | .88–1.5 | 75 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [2.8] | 2.6 | 2.6 | .72–1.1 | 188 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Exodus: Gods and Kings is headed for $8.1 million this weekend (down a horrific -67% from last weekend and well below our $10.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $65 million.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 is headed for $7.8 million this weekend (down -39% from last weekend and somewhat above our $6.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $315 million.
Top Five is headed for $3.6 million this weekend (down -48% from last weekend and somewhat below our $4.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $44 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $127 million total Friday-Sunday, up 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down -8% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 51 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $127 | The Hobbit 3 $56.2, Night at the Museum 3 $17.3, Annie $16.3 | |
| 2013 | $137 | Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues $26.2, American Hustle $19.1, Saving Mr Banks $9.3 | |
| 2012 | $100 | Jack Reacher $15.6, This Is 40 $11.6, The Guilt Trip $5.4 | |
| 2011 | $114 | Girl with Dragon Tattoo $12.8, Adventures of Tin Tin $9.7, We Bought a Zoo $9.4 | |
| 2010 | $132 | Little Fockers $30.8, True Grit $24.9, Gulliver’s Travels $6.3 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $121 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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