Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #23 of 2015 looks like $128 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little worse than it looked yesterday and down significantly the norm for this weekend as the lame summer continues.
Opening at 3,711 theaters Friday, Spy from Fox is now on track for a $30.0 million opening three-day weekend (below our $39.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an above average but not spectacular $8,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very strong (95% positive overall and 91% positive with top critics). Spy is headed for $106 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,002 theaters Friday, Insidious Chapter 3 from Focus/ Universal is now headed for a $23.0 million opening weekend (somewhat below our $28.0 million forecast). The film is on track for a decent $7,700 per theater average for the weekend. Critical sentiment is positive, especially solid for a horror sequel: 59% positive overall and 62% positive with top critics). Insidious Chapter 3 is headed for $63 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,108 theaters Wednesday, Entourage from Warner Brothers is headed for a $10.4 million opening weekend (below our $17.0 million forecast). The film is on track for a pitiful $3,400 per theater average for the weekend. Through Sunday, the film should total $17.8 million for the first five days. Critical sentiment is pretty negative: only 30% positive overall and 24% positive with top critics). Entourage is headed for $32 million total domestic.
| Weekend 23: June 5-7, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Spy | Fox | [39.5] | 32.0 | 30.0 | 10.3/ 11.1 | 106 | |
| San Andreas | WB | [26.8] | 25.0 | 26.4 | 7.7/ 10.7 | 163 | |
| Insidious Chapter 3 | Foc/Uni | [28.0] | 23.9 | 23.0 | 10.4/ 7.6 | 63 | |
| Entourage | WB | [17.0] | 10.9 | 10.4 | 3.7/ 3.8 | 32 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [7.6] | 8.3 | 8.0 | 2.3/ 3.2 | 157 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [7.9] | 8.4 | 7.7 | 2.6/ 3.0 | 182 | |
| Tomorrowland | Dis | [7.7] | 8.1 | 7.0 | 2.1/ 2.9 | 93 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [6.3] | 7.1 | 6.2 | 1.8/ 2.6 | 452 | |
| Aloha | Sony | [4.6] | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.1/ 1.3 | 19 | |
| Poltergeist | Fox | [3.2] | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.9/ 1.1 | 49 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
San Andreas is headed for $26.4 million this weekend (down -52% from last weekend and near our $26.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $163 million.
Mad Max: Fury Road is headed for $8.0 million this weekend (down -44% from last weekend and near our $7.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $157 million.
Pitch Perfect 2 is headed for $7.7 million this weekend (down -48% from last weekend and near our $7.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $182 million.
Tomorrowland is headed for $7.0 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and slightly below our $7.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $93 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $128 million total Friday-Sunday, below yesterday’s estimate ($132 million) and down -16% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -18% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 23 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $128 | Spy $30.0, Insidious Chapter 3 $23.0, Entourage $10.4 | |
| 2014 | $157 | Fault In Our Stars $48.0, Edge of Tomorrow $28.8 | |
| 2013 | $143 | The Purge $34.1, The Internship $17.3 | |
| 2012 | $174 | Madagascar 3 $60.3, Prometheus $51.1 | |
| 2011 | $132 | Super 8 $35.5, Judy Moody… $6.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $152 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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