Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #32 of 2015 looks like $122 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate ($119 million) but still down significantly from the norm for this weekend (see track below).
Opening at 3,995 theaters Friday, Fantastic Four from Fox is on track for a listless $26.2 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $46.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a just barely above average $6,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very weak (9% positive overall and 6% positive with top critics). Fantastic Four is headed for $69 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,648 theaters Friday, The Gift the inaugural release from STX Entertainment is on track for a $12.0 million opening three-day weekend (beating our $9.2 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a $7,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very strong (92% positive overall and 95% positive with top critics). The Gift is headed for $39 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,603 theaters Friday, Ricki and the Flash from Sony is on track for a $7.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $8.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a below average $4,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (59% positive overall and 50% positive with top critics). Ricki and the Flash is headed for $24 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,320 theaters Wednesday, Shaun the Sheep from Lionsgate is on track for a $4.0 million three-day weekend and $6 million Wednesday-Sunday (below our $6.5 million Friday-Sunday and $9 million Wednesday-Sunday forecasts earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a woeful $1,700 per theater for the weekend. However, critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is nearly unanimous (99% positive overall and 100% positive with top critics). Shaun the Sheep is headed for $13 million total domestic.
| Weekend 32: August 7-9, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [27.5] | 28.0 | 29.4 | 8.2/ 11.9 | 187 | |
| Fantastic Four | Fox | [46.5] | 27.0 | 26.2 | 11.3/ 8.5 | 69 | |
| The Gift | STX | [9.2] | 10.6 | 12.0 | 4.1/ 4.5 | 39 | |
| Vacation | WB | [7.5] | 8.8 | 9.1 | 2.7/ 3.7 | 59 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [6.7] | 7.9 | 7.8 | 2.3/ 3.3 | 172 | |
| Minions | Uni | [6.7] | 7.4 | 7.4 | 2.2/ 3.0 | 329 | |
| Ricki and the Flash | Sony | [8.0] | 7.2 | 7.0 | 2.3/ 2.6 | 24 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | [6.1] | 6.2 | 6.3 | 1.9/ 2.6 | 112 | |
| Pixels | Sony | [5.3] | 5.3 | 5.4 | 1.6/ 2.2 | 71 | |
| Southpaw | Weins | [—] | n/a | 4.7 | 1.3/ 1.9 | 53 | |
| Shaun the Sheep | LG | [6.5] | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.2/ 1.6 | 13 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $29.4 million this weekend (down -47% from last weekend and now above our $27.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $187 million.
Vacation is headed for $9.1 million this weekend (down -38% from last weekend and above our $7.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $59 million.
Ant-Man is headed for $7.8 million this weekend (down -39% from last weekend and somewhat above our $6.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $172 million.
Minions is headed for $7.4 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and a touch above our $6.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $329 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $122 million total Friday-Sunday, down -18% from the average for the comparable weekend and down -30% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 32 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $122 | Fantastic Four $26.2, The Gift $12.0, Ricki and the Flash $7.0, Shaun the Sheep $4.0 | |
| 2014 | $174 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $65.6, Into the Storm $17.3, Hundred-Foot Journey $11.0, Step Up All In $6.5 | |
| 2013 | $142 | Elysium $29.8, We’re the Millers $26.4, Planes $22.2, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters $14.4 | |
| 2012 | $133 | The Bourne Legacy $38.1, The Campaign $26.6, Hope Springs $14.7 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $148 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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