Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #34 of 2013 looks like an okay $92 million for the top 12 films, up a bit from yesterday’s estimate and now up 1% from the average for this weekend the last few years.
Opening at 1,548 theaters Friday, The World’s End from Focus/Universal grossed $3.5 million Friday and $3.1 million Saturday, now on track for an $8.9 million opening weekend (somewhat below the $9.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $5,800 per theater for the weekend (slightly above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very strong (91% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a similar 87% with top critics). The World’s End is headed for $34 million total domestic — the strong reviews and comedic genre should propel the film on a semi-decent track in coming weeks.
Opening at 3,118 theaters Wednesday, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones from Sony grossed $3.1 million Friday and $3.8 million Saturday, now headed for a $9.3 million opening weekend (below our $12.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a bad three-day average of $2,900 per theater for the weekend. Combined with the $4.7 million from Wednesday-Thursday, Mortal Instruments should total $14 million through Sunday. Critical sentiment is horrible: 13% positive overall and an identical 13% positive with top critics. Mortal Instruments is headed for $23 million total domestic — the brutal reviews and the narrow genre should bring its theatrical run to a rapid close.
Opening at 2,435 theaters Friday, You’re Next from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $3.0 million Friday and $2.5 million Saturday, now on track for a $7.1 million opening weekend (below our $9.2 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a bad three-day average of $2,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is solid: 80% positive overall and 78% positive with top critics. You’re Next is headed for $22 million total domestic.
Expanding to 1,237 theaters Friday, Blue Jasmine from Sony Classics and Woody Allen is now pacing toward a $4.3 million opening weekend (under our $5.6 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $3,500 per theater for the weekend. In addition to its four weeks of limited release, the film should total $14 million through Sunday. Critical sentiment is strong: 90% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 86% positive with top critics. Blue Jasmine is headed for $34 million total domestic.
The final domestic gross estimates for both Lee Daniels’ The Butler and We’re the Millers have been adjusted upward to $99 million and $129 million, respectively. The Butler is exhibiting signs of extraordinary staying power. The last seven days (Monday through the end of this weekend) is on pace to total $28 million, more than the first three days ($25 million opening weekend). Usually it’s a great sign if the first full week matches the opening weekend, while most films decline 10-15% in the first full week from the opening weekend.
| Weekend 34: August 23-25, 2013 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | [15.9] | 16.6 | 17.0 | 4.8–7.0 | 99+ | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | [12.3] | 13.2 | 13.5 | 4.0–5.6 | 129+ | |
| The Mortal Instruments | Sony | [12.5] | 9.3 | 9.3 | 3.1–3.8 | 23 | |
| The World’s End | Foc/Uni | [9.5] | 9.7 | 8.9 | 3.5–3.1 | 34 | |
| Planes | Dis | [8.7] | 8.6 | 8.6 | 2.3–3.7 | 81 | |
| You’re Next | LG/Sum | [9.2] | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.0–2.5 | 22 | |
| Elysium | Sony | [7.1] | 6.8 | 7.1 | 2.0–2.9 | 88 | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | [4.9] | 5.3 | 5.2 | 1.5–2.2 | 62 | |
| Kick-Ass 2 | Uni | [5.9] | 4.1 | 4.3 | 1.3–1.7 | 28 | |
| Blue Jasmine | Sony | [5.6] | 4.0 | 4.3 | 1.2–n/a | 34 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $92 million total Friday-Sunday, up 1% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 11% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 34 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Su only) | ||
| 2013 | $92 | Mortal Instruments $9.3, World’s End $8.9, You’re Next $7.1, Blue Jasmine $4.3 | |
| 2012 | $83 | 2016: Obama’s America $6.5, Premium Rush $6.0, Hit and Run $4.5, The Apparition $2.8 | |
| 2011 | $75 | Colombiana $10.4, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark $8.5, Our Idiot Brother $7.0 | |
| 2010 | $95 | Takers $20.5, The Last Exorcism $20.4, Avatar: Special Edition $4.0 | |
| 2009 | $110 | The Final Destination $27.4, Halloween 2 $16.3, Taking Woodstock $3.5 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $91 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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