September 2, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Like last week, Saturday was somewhat stronger than anticipated yesterday — the weekend now looks like $84 million instead of $81 million for the top 12 films.   The Possession and Lawless both look like they will be about one million dollars higher for the Friday-Sunday portion of the long weekend.  Oogieloves and the BIG Balloon Adventure still looks like one of the biggest bombs of all time — $207 for the entire weekend at 2,160 theaters.  That puts it #2 on the list, behind only the $128 opening weekend average for Proud American on September 12-14, 2008.   If you assume about six showings per day for Oogieloves (18 screenings Friday-Sunday), that works out to about $11.50 per showing this weekend (almost one adult and one child per theater).  


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  The Possession ($41 million), Lawless ($33 million) and Oogieloves and the BIG Balloon Adventure ($1 million).

Second week films:  2016 Obama’s America ($29 million, adjusted up from last week’s initial estimate), Premium Rush ($24 million, adjusted up somewhat), and Hit and Run ($15 million, adjusted up a few million dollars from last week).

Third week films:  The Expendables 2 ($87 million, similar to last week), ParaNorman ($55 million, up a touch from last week), The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($49 million, up another $5 million from last week’s estimate) and Sparkle ($24 million, down from $28 million last week).

Fourth week films:  The Bourne Idenity ($112 million, up somewhat from last week), The Campaign ($86 million, steady with last week) and Hope Springs ($64 million, up a touch from last week).

Weekend 35: Aug 31-Sep 2, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
The Possession LG 17.7 41
Lawless Weins 9.7 33
The Expendables 2 LG -34% 8.8 87
Bourne Legacy Uni -23% 7.2 112
ParaNorman Foc/ Uni -24% 6.6 55
Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis -15% 6.1 49
Dark Knight Rises WB -19% 5.9 443
The Campaign WB -27% 5.4 86
2016 Obama’s America Rocky Mtn -22% 5.1 29
Hope Springs Sony -18% 4.7 64
Premium Rush Sony -35% 3.9 24
Hit and Run Open Road -42% 2.6 15
Oogieloves Big Balloon Kenn 0.45 1


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $84 million total Friday-Sunday (slightly higher than it looked yesterday), up 2% from last year and up 14% from the four-year average (which is heavily weighted by the extraordinarily low 2008 Labor Day weekend).

($ millions)
WEEKEND #35 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $84 The Possession $18, Lawless $10, Oogieloves $0.45
2011 $82 The Debt $10, Apollo 18 $9, Shark Night 3D $8
2010 $81 The American $13, Machete $11, Going the Distance $7
2009 $81 All About Steve $11, Gamer $9, Extract $4
2008 $50 Bangkok Dangerous $8
Avg 2008-11 $74

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are The Words from CBS Films (drama starring Bradley Cooper, Jeremy Irons and Olivia Wilde) and The Cold Light of Day from Summit (action thriller starring Henry Cavill, Bruce Willis and Sigourney Weaver).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Contagion  ($22.4 million opening weekend), Warrior ($5.2 million) and Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star ($1.4 million — compared to Oogieloves, a relatively robust $943 per theater).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.