February 3, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf

Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #5 of 2013 continues to be on pace for $69 million for the top 12 films (over 30% behind the pace for the same weekend the last few years and identical to the early estimate yesterday).  

Opening at 3,009 theaters Friday, Warm Bodies from Summit grossed $7.6 million Friday and $9 million Saturday, still on track for a $20 million opening weekend (exactly hitting the $20.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The zombie film is averaging $6,655 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 average first weekend for all wide-release films the last two years).  Critics are supportive: 77% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Warm Bodies should finish with $64 million total domestic.

Putting Warm Bodies aside, no other film is headed for a weekend over $10 million.

Opening at 2,404 theaters, Bullet to the Head starring Sylvester Stallone, produced by Joel Silver and directed by Walter Hill grossed only $1.7 million Friday, increased to only $2.0 million Saturday, and is on track for a $4.5 million weekend (below the already tepid $6.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).  The film is averaging a terrible $1,872 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a mediocre 46% positive.  Bullet to the Head is headed for only $12 million total domestic.

Weekend 5: February 1-3, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Warm Bodies Summit [20.0] 20.0 20.0  7.6–9.0 64
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters Par [7.8] 9.5 9.2  2.9–4.7 53
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [7.2] 8.0 8.1  2.4–4.1 107
Mama Uni [6.1] 7.0 6.7  2.3–3.4 73
Zero Dark Thirty Sony [5.4] 5.2 5.3  1.6–2.9 94
Bullet to the Head WB [6.8] 4.6 4.5  1.7–2.0 12
Parker FilmDis [3.5] 3.1 3.2  1.1–1.6 18
Django Unchained Weins [3.0] 3.0 3.0  .92–1.6 163
Les Miserables Uni [2.5] 2.5 2.4  .74–1.3 152
Lincoln DW/Fox/Dis [2.7] 2.3 2.4  .69–1.3 179
Movie 43 Rel [2.4] 1.6 1.6  .60–.80 6

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are still looking like $69 million total Friday-Sunday, down a steep 31% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 27% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #5 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $69 Warm Bodies $20, Bullet to the Head $4.5
2012 $94 Chronicle $22, Woman in Black $21, Big Miracle $8
2011 $73 The Roommate $15, Sanctum $9
2010 $100 Dear John $31, From Paris with Love $8, Crazy Heart $4
2009 $131 He’s Just Not That Into You $28, Coraline $17, Pink Panther 2 $12
Avg 2009-12 $100

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.