Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #2 of 2014 looks like $124 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the average for the same weekend the past few years (but better than we forecast earlier this week and now 2% above last year’s comparable weekend).
Opening at 2,876 theaters Friday, Lone Survivor from Universal grossed $14.4 million Friday and $14.5 million Saturday, putting the Peter Berg-directed Afghanistan War drama on track for a $38.5 million opening three-day weekend (way above our $22.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $13,400 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is generally supportive (73% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a similar 69% positive with top critics). Lone Survivor is headed for $116 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,104 theaters Friday, Legend of Hercules from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $3.1 million Friday and $3.4 million Saturday, placing the film on track for an $8.6 million opening three-day weekend (above our very bearish $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sub-par three-day average of $4,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is dismissive (only 2% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 11% positive with top critics). Legend of Hercules is headed for a quick exit from theaters and $18 million total domestic.
| Weekend 2: January 10-12, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri-Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Lone Survivor | Uni | [22.0] | 37.7 | 38.5 | 14.4-14.5 | 116 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [12.5] | 15.4 | 15.1 | 3.1-7.1 | 340 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | [8.1] | 8.8 | 9.0 | 2.7-3.8 | 107 | |
| Legend of Hercules | LG/Sum | [6.5] | 9.1 | 8.6 | 3.1-3.4 | 18 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | [7.7] | 8.2 | 8.6 | 2.6-3.8 | 132 | |
| The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug | WB | [8.6] | 7.5 | 8.0 | 2.1-3.7 | 260 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | [3.7] | 7.0 | 7.3 | 2.2-3.1 | 27 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | [5.9] | 6.3 | 6.6 | 1.9-3.0 | 91 | |
| Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones | Par | [6.4] | 5.9 | 6.3 | 2.1-2.8 | 37 | |
| Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues | Par | [5.6] | 5.6 | 6.1 | 1.9-2.7 | 143 | |
| Her | WB | [8.5] | 5.7 | 5.4 | 1.8-2.2 | 30 | |
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | [4.3] | 3.9 | 4.6 | 1.2-2.1 | 420 | |
| Secret Life of Walter Mitty | Fox | [4.9] | 4.1 | 4.4 | 1.3-2.0 | 64 | |
| Grudge Match | WB | [—] | 1.8 | 1.9 | .58-.90 | 33 | |
| Inside Llewyn Davis | CBS | [—] | 1.7 | 1.9 | .55-.86 | 26 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In the battle of Oscar hopefuls, August: Osage County beat the wonderful-but-hard-to-sell Her, while Inside Llewyn Davis is not breaking through with a mainstream audience at all.
August: Osage County from The Weinstein Company is on track to average $8,100 per theater this weekend at 905 theaters, for a $7.3 million first wide weekend. August: Osage County has the least critical support of the three Oscar hopefuls this weekend (only 64% positive overall and an even squishier 59% with top critics).
Her from Warner Brothers is on track to average a very weak $3,100 per theater at 1,729 theaters for a $5.4 million first wide weekend. Critical support is near universal: 93% positive overall and with the subset of top critics.
From CBS Films, Inside Llewyn Davis is on course for an absolutely dismal $2,600 per theater at 729 theaters, for a $1.9 million total in its first semi-wide weekend. Critical support is widespread: 94% positive overall and with top critics.
Frozen 3D remains the class of the holdovers, the only returning films to stay above $10 million for the weekend.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the four-year average for the same weekend but up 2% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 2 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $124 | Lone Survivor $38.5, Legend of Hercules $8.6, August: Osage County $7.3, Her $5.4 | |
| 2013 | $121 | Zero Dark Thirty $24.4, A Haunted House $18.1, Gangster Squad $17.1 | |
| 2012 | $115 | Contraband $24.3, Beauty and the Beast 3D $17.8, Joyful Noise $11.2 | |
| 2011 | $115 | Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $17.8 | |
| 2010 | $157 | The Book of Eli $32.8, The Lovely Bones $17.0, The Spy Next Door $9.7 | |
| Avg 2009-13 | $138 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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