January 26, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates JANUARY 24-26

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #4 of 2014 now looks like $97 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate ($94 million) and now 4% below the average for the comparable weekend the past few years.

Opening at 2,753 theaters Friday, I, Frankenstein from Lionsgate/Summit grossed a tiny $2.8 million Friday and $3.4 million Saturday, now putting the film on track for an $8.3 million opening weekend (a little better than yesterday but still below our $15.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a truly scary three-day average of $3,000 per theater for the weekend (well below the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is dismissive (5% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 0% positive with top critics). I, Frankenstein is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $13 million total domestic.

Ride Along, Lone Survivor and The Nut Job are looking a little stronger than they did yesterday and each now very close to our forecast on Wednesday.

In limited release, Gimme Shelter from Roadside Attractions opened at 385 theaters and is heading for a disappointing $1,873 per theater for the weekend. The film should total $721,000 for the weekend.

Weekend 4: January 24-26, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Ride Along Uni [22.0] 20.5 21.2 6.3-9.8 124
Lone Survivor Uni [13.0] 12.3 12.6 3.6-5.9 131
The Nut Job Open R [12.4] 11.4 12.3 2.6-5.8 68
Frozen 3D Dis [8.5] 8.9 9.0 2.0-4.2 370
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Par [8.8] 8.9 8.8 2.6-4.2 52
I, Frankenstein LG/Sum [15.5] 7.6 8.3 2.8-3.4 13
American Hustle Sony [7.2] 6.8 7.1 2.0-3.3 152
The Wolf of Wall Street Par [4.5] 5.1 5.0 1.5-2.5 114
August: Osage County Weins [4.7] 5.0 5.0 1.4-2.2 42
Devil’s Due Fox [3.0] 2.7 2.8 .91-1.2 15

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an unexceptional $97 million total Friday-Sunday, down 4% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 9% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 4 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $97 I, Frankenstein $8.3
2013 $88 Hansel and Gretel Witch Hunters $19.7, Parker $7.0, Movie 43 $4.8
2012 $98 The Grey $19.7, One for the Money $11.5, Man on a Ledge $8.0
2011 $92 The Rite $14.8, The Mechanic $11.4
2010 $110 Edge of Darkness $17.2, When in Rome $12.4
Avg 2010-13 $100

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.