July 13, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates JULY 11-13

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #28 of 2014 now looks like $140 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 27% below the norm for this weekend and now slightly above our forecast ($134 million).

Opening at 3,967 theaters, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from 20th Century Fox grossed $27.7 million through Friday and $25.5 million Saturday, now on track for a $73.0 million opening weekend (slightly above our $69.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $18,400 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very strong (91% positive overall and 86% positive with top critics). Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is now headed for $211 million total domestic.

Transformers: Age of Extinction is headed for $16.5 million this weekend (down 55% from last weekend and slightly below our $17.5 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for the latest Transformers has been adjusted to $250 million.  Tammy is headed for $12.9 million this weekend (down 40% from last weekend but comfortably above our $10.8 million forecast).  The total domestic projection for Tammy has been adjusted to $89 million.  22 Jump Street is headed for $6.7 million this weekend (down 32% from last weekend and somewhat above our $6.0 million forecast).  The total domestic projection for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted up slightly to $194 million.  Earth to Echo is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down a very good 34% from last weekend and near our $5.3 million forecast).  The total domestic projection for Earth to Echo has been adjusted to $39 million.  How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $5.9 million this weekend (down 35% from last weekend and very close to our $6.0 million forecast).  The total domestic projection for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted to $173 million.  

Weekend 28: July 11-13, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox [69.0] 70.0 73.0 27.7–25.5 211
Transformers: Age of Extinction Par [17.5] 16.0 16.5 4.88–6.61 250
Tammy WB [10.8] 13.1 12.9 4.06–5.05 89
22 Jump Street Sony [6.0] 6.3 6.7 2.05–2.63 194
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox [6.0] 5.6 5.9 1.77–2.36 173
Earth to Echo Rel [5.3] 5.7 5.5 1.76–2.17 39
Deliver Us From Evil Sony [5.0] 4.5 4.7 1.57–1.83 32
Maleficent Dis [4.2] 4.0 4.2 1.24–1.68 239
Begin Again Weins [2.9] 2.7 2.9 .82–1.17 20
Jersey Boys WB [3.0] 2.4 2.5 .72–1.06 49
Think Like a Man Too Sony [2.7] 2.3 2.5 .76–1.02 65
America LG/Sum [—] 2.3 2.4 .72–.95 11

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $140 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate ($134 million) but still down 27% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 26% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 28 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $140 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $73.0
2013 $188 Grown Ups 2 $41.5, Pacific Rim $37.3
2012 $154 Ice Age: Continental Shift $46.6
2011 $252 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $169.2, Winnie the Pooh $7.9
2010 $171 Despicable Me $56.4, Predators $24.8
Avg 2010-13 $192

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.