October 13, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates OCTOBER 11-13

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #41 of 2013 looks like an okay $109 million for the top 12 films, down 10% from last year’s comparable weekend and down a nominal 2% from the average for the same weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,874 theaters Friday, Captain Phillips from Sony Pictures grossed $8.5 million Friday and$10.4 million Saturday, now on track for $26.0 million opening weekend (slightly above the $23.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,700 per theater for the weekend (somewhat above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very strong (95% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 89% positive with top critics). Captain Phillips is now headed for $84 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,538 theaters Friday, Machete Kills from Open Road Films grossed $1.4 million Friday and Saturday, now pacing toward a very weak $3.8 million opening weekend (well under our already bearish $8.0 million forecast). The film is headed for a horrific three-day average of $1,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (30% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 19% positive with top critics). Machete Kills is headed for a quick exit and perhaps $8 million total domestic, way below the $26.6 million domestic total for Machete which opened with $11.4 million September 3-5, 2010.

Gravity has been adjusted down a touch to still robust $246 million total domestic.  The second weekend is now looking like $44.3 million projection for the second weekend (now down 21% from the strong opening weekend). The film should total $123.4 million through Sunday. If the film can keep declining at a 20% rate in the coming weekends (rather than the standard 47% clip), the total domestic tally will be adjusted up to closer to $325 million very soon.

Weekend 41: October 11-13, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Gravity WB [39.5] 45.0 44.3 12.7–18.6 246
Captain Phillips Sony [23.5] 26.5 26.0 8.5–10.4 84
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony [14.2] 14.5 14.2 3.6–6.1 112
Machete Kills OpenRoad [8.0] 4.0 3.8 1.4–1.4 8
Runner Runner Fox [3.8] 3.8 3.7 1.1–1.5 18
Prisoners WB [3.5] 3.7 3.7 1.1–1.6 63
Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis [2.5] 2.7 2.7 .81–1.2 82
Rush Uni [2.3] 2.4 2.4 .71–1.0 29
Don Jon Rel [2.4] 2.3 2.3 .76–.96 26
Baggage Claim Fox [2.2] 1.9 2.1 .57–.97 19
Enough Said Fox S [—] 2.0 1.9 .53–.86 n/a

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $109 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 10% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 41 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $109 Captain Phillips $26.0, Machete Kills $3.8
2012 $121 Argo $19.5, Sinister $18.0, Here Comes the Boom $11.8
2011 $77 Footloose $15.6, The Thing $8.5, The Big Year $3.3
2010 $120 Jackass 3-D $50.4, Red $21.8
2009 $128 Where the Wild Things Are $32.7, Law Abiding Citizen $21.0, Paranormal Activity $19.6
Avg 2009-12 $111

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.