June 15, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates JUNE 13-15

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #24 of 2014 now looks like $184 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, still 20% above the norm for this weekend but now -7% below the same weekend last year.  

Opening at 3,306 theaters, 22 Jump Street from Sony grossed $25.2 million Friday and $18.8 million Saturday, putting it on track for a $60.0 million opening three-day weekend (now fairly close to our $58.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a still really good three-day average of $18,100 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is supportive (83% positive overall and an even better 90% positive with top critics). 22 Jump Street is now headed for $189 million total domestic.

Opening at 4,253 theaters, How to Train Your Dragon 2 from 20th Century Fox and DreamWorks Animation grossed $18.5 million Friday and $17.2 million Saturday, putting the animated sequel on pace for a $50.0 million opening weekend (well below our $69.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward an average of $11,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very strong (92% positive overall and a similar 93% positive with top critics). How to Train Your Dragon 2 is now headed for $164 million total domestic.

Maleficent is headed for $19.0 million in its third weekend (down 45% from last weekend and somewhat above our $17.5 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Maleficent has been adjusted up to $220 million.  Edge of Tomorrow is headed for $16.2 million in its second weekend (down 44% from last weekend and slightly above our $14.5 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Edge of Tomorrow has been adjusted up to $99 million.  The Fault in Our Stars is headed for $15.7 million in its second weekend (now down 67% from last weekend and below our $19.8 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for The Fault in Our Stars has been adjusted down to $118 million.    

Weekend 24: June 13-15, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
22 Jump Street Sony [58.0] 63.0 60.0 25.2–18.8 189
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox [69.0] 54.0 50.0 18.5–17.2 164
Maleficent Dis [17.5] 20.5 19.0 5.8–7.3 220
Edge of Tomorrow WB [14.5] 16.0 16.2 4.6–6.1 99
The Fault in Our Stars Fox [19.8] 17.5 15.7 6.3–5.7 118
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox [7.6] 9.5 9.5 2.6–3.7 231
Godzilla WB [3.1] 3.4 3.2 .88–1.2 198
A Million Ways to Die in the West Uni [3.4] 3.0 3.1 .92–1.2 44
Neighbors Uni [2.9] 2.6 2.5 .80–.96 154
Chef OpenR [1.8] 2.3 2.3 .61–.93 24
Blended WB [2.1] 1.9 1.6 .54–.65 45

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $184 million total Friday-Sunday, down from yesterday’s estimate ($197 million) and now down -7% from the same weekend last year but still up 20% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend.

WEEKEND 24 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $184 22 Jump Street $60.0, How to Train Your Dragon 2 $50.0
2013 $197 Man of Steel $116.6, This Is the End $20.7, Before Midnight $1.4
2012 $123 Rock of Ages $14.4, That’s My Boy $13.5
2011 $147 Green Lantern $53.2, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18.4
2010 $191 Toy Story 3 $110.3, Jonah Hex $5.4
Avg 2010-13 $154

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.