June 22, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates JUNE 20-22

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #25 of 2014 looks like $143 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, very close to yesterday’s estimate for the weekend ($144 million) and now 12% below the norm for this weekend and a big 39% below the same very successful weekend last year.  

Opening at 2,225 theaters, Think Like a Man Too from Sony grossed $12.2 million Friday and $10.4 million Saturday, putting the comedy sequel on track for a $30.0 million opening three-day weekend (now below our $35.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is now pacing toward a three-day average of $13,500 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (23% positive overall and an even lower 18% positive with top critics). Think Like a Man Too has been adjusted down to $82 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,905 theaters, Jersey Boys from Warner Brothers and director Clint Eastwood grossed $4.6 million Friday and $5.2 million Saturday, now on pace for a $13.5 million opening weekend (slightly above our $12.0 million forecast). The film is headed toward a mediocre $4,700 average per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is split (55% positive overall and a slightly more respectable 64% positive with top critics). Jersey Boys is headed for $37 million total domestic.

22 Jump Street is now headed for $29.0 million in its second weekend (down 49% from last weekend and slightly below our $28.2 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted to $187 million.  How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $25.3 million in its second weekend (down 49% from last weekend and below our $28.2 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted to $162 million.    Maleficent is headed for $13.0 million this weekend (down 30% from last weekend and slightly above our $11.8 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Maleficent has been adjusted up to $222 million.  Edge of Tomorrow is headed for $10.3 million this weekend (down 37% from last weekend and very close to our $10.1 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Edge of Tomorrow has been adjusted up to $105 million.  

Weekend 25: June 20-22, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Think Like a Man Too Sony [35.0] 34.1 30.0 12.2–10.4 82
22 Jump Street Sony [28.2] 27.1 29.0 9.4–10.8 187
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox [28.2] 24.8 25.3 7.7–10.0 162
Jersey Boys WB [12.0] 13.8 13.5 4.6–5.2 37
Maleficent Dis [11.8] 12.9 13.0 4.0–5.2 222
Edge of Tomorrow WB [10.1] 9.8 10.3 3.0–4.2 105
The Fault in Our Stars Fox [8.4] 9.2 8.6 3.1–3.2 119
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox [5.9] 6.0 6.2 1.8–2.6 233
Godzilla WB [1.9] 1.8 1.8 .53–.76 197
Chef OpenR [—] 1.7 1.8 .48–.78 24
A Million Ways to Die in the West Uni [1.7] 1.5 1.6 .50–.67 43

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $143 million total Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 39% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 25 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $143 Think Like a Man Too $30.0, Jersey Boys $13.5
2013 $232 Monsters University $82.4, World War Z $66.4
2012 $157 Brave $66.3, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter $16.3
2011 $170 Cars 2 $66.1, Bad Teacher $31.6
2010 $157 Grown Ups $40.5, Knight & Day $20.1
Avg 2010-13 $161

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.