Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #26 of 2014 now looks like $171 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, very close to yesterday’s estimate ($172 million) and 10% below the norm for this weekend and 6% below the same weekend last year as the lackluster summer 2014 rolls on.
Opening at 4,233 theaters, Transformers: Age of Extinction from Paramount grossed $41.6 million through Friday and $32.2 million Saturday and is now on track for a $100.0 million opening three-day weekend (matching our $100.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid three-day average of $23,600 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (18% positive overall and a hostile 6% positive with top critics). Transformers: Age of Extinction is now headed for $273 million total domestic.
Previous Transformers Films
Transformers: Dark of the Moon was released June 29, 2011, had a 36% positive review score at RottenTomatoes, and grossed $352.4 million domestic, $771.4 million overseas and $1.124 billion worldwide.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was released June 24, 2009, had a 19% positive review score, and grossed $402.1 million domestic, $434.2 million overseas and $836.3 million worldwide.
Transformers was released July 3, 2007, had a 57% positive review score, and grossed $319.2 million domestic, $390.5 million overseas and $709.7 million worldwide.
22 Jump Street is headed for $15.4 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend and slightly above our $14.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for 22 Jump Street is $187 million. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $13.1 million this weekend (down 47% from last weekend and below our $14.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for How to Train Your Dragon 2 is $166 million. Think Like a Man Too is headed for $10.4 million this weekend (down 64% from last weekend and below our $13.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Think Like a Man Too has been adjusted to $68 million.
| Weekend 26: June 27-29, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | [100.0] | 102.0 | 100.0 | 41.6–32.2 | 273 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [14.7] | 15.1 | 15.4 | 5.1–6.1 | 187 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | [14.7] | 13.1 | 13.1 | 4.1–5.1 | 166 | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | [13.1] | 10.3 | 10.4 | 3.4–4.2 | 68 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | [8.0] | 8.3 | 8.24 | 2.6–3.3 | 230 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | [7.5] | 7.0 | 7.61 | 2.3–3.2 | 47 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | [5.3] | 5.1 | 5.21 | 1.6–2.2 | 103 | |
| The Fault in Our Stars | Fox | [5.1] | 5.0 | 4.80 | 1.8–1.7 | 122 | |
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | [3.2] | 3.1 | 3.30 | .97–1.35 | 236 | |
| Chef | OpenR | [1.2] | 1.6 | 1.65 | .44–.72 | 25 | |
| Godzilla | WB | [—] | 0.8 | 1.00 | .31–.42 | 197 | |
| Neighbors | Uni | [—] | 0.7 | .74 | .24–.32 | 153 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $171 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 6% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 25 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $171 | Transformers: Age of Extinction $100.0 | |
| 2013 | $183 | The Heat $39.1, White House Down $24.9 | |
| 2012 | $197 | Ted $54.4, Magic Mike $39.1, TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection $25.4 | |
| 2011 | $192 | Transformers: Dark of the Moon $97.9, Larry Crowne $13.1 | |
| 2010 | $181 | Grown Ups $40.5, Knight & Day $20.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $190 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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