May 15, 2011

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 13-15: Bridesmaids Opens Solidly While Thor Remains #1

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Solid opening for Bridesmaids, Priest disappoints, and Thor remains #1.  Nonetheless, the weekend is down only a bit versus last year, when Robin Hood opened and Iron Man 2’s second weekend was #1.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Bridesmaids should finish its run with $90 million domestic (with upside), while Priest should finish with around $30 million, if that.  Thor is now looking like $205 million, and Fast Five is locking in on $212 million.  After a surprisingly strong fifth weekend (go figure) Rio has been upgraded back to $147 million.  

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Bridesmaids opened with $24.4 million, averaging a solid $8,362 per theater at 2,918 theaters.  Priest opened with $14.5 million, playing on 2,864 theaters and averaging $5,063.      

May 13-15, 2011                     Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Thor                      (Par)     $34.5   -48%      $205
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $24.4             $ 90
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $19.5   -40%      $212
Priest                   (Sony)     $14.5             $ 32
Rio                       (Fox)     $ 8.0   – 6%      $147
Jumping the Broom        (Sony)     $ 7.3   -52%      $ 43
Something Borrowed         (WB)     $ 7.0   -50%      $ 38
Water for Elephants       (Fox)     $ 4.1   -32%      $ 58
Madea’s Big Happy Family   (LG)     $ 2.2   -47%      $ 53
Soul Surfer              (Sony    $ 1.8   -22%      $ 44

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Early International View

So far, Thor has now grossed $198 million overseas, while Fast Five is at $215 million total.  (Note: international numbers will be updated and tallied late Monday or early Tuesday.)

Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total, down 5%.  The weekend total is about $10 million higher than yesterday’s because of across the board strength in Saturday movie attendance.  The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in. 

Top 12 Films: Weekend #19
2011  $125  (
-11% vs 2007-10 average; -5% vs 2010) 

Avg   $140 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $131  Robin Hood $36, Letters to Juliet $13, Just Wright $8

2009  $131  Angels & Demons $46
2008  $126  Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $55
2007  $174  Shrek the Third $122

Next Weekend

Opening next week is the period comedy Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides from Disney (the fourth in the series).  This blockbuster will be compared against Shrek Forever After‘s $71 million opening weekend on 5.21-23.2010….and don’t forget the ill-fated MacGruber with $4 million the same weekend.  Next weekend will be a good opportunity for 2011 to get back on track with an up weekend.

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post.  Also, check out Mitch Salem’s review of Bridesmaids and Priest

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.