November 20, 2011


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , ,

>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 is opening just short of $140 million in its first weekend, while Happy Feet Two looks like a $22 million opening.  The top 12 films this weekend should do a combined $217 million, up 16% from the same weekend last year — a very good showing but not as strong as it was looking yesterday.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 ($292 milllion — see complete track for prior Twilight films below) and Happy Feet Two ($85 million). 

Among the second week films, Immortals has been downgraded ($78 million), as has Jack and Jill ($64 million).  J. Edgar is holding steady at its previous estimate ($34 million).

Tower Heist drifted down a bit again ($71 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas is locking in on its final number ($36 million). 

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will average $34,350 per theater (a well above average mark) at 4,061 theaters (for $139.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Happy Feet Two is opening with an only slightly above average $6,100 per theater at 3,606 theaters ($22.0 million).  In limited release, The Descendants (starring George Clooney and from Sideways director Alexander Payne) is opening with a solid $42,150 per theater at 29 theaters ($1.2 million).    

November 18-20, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $139.5            $292
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $22.0             $ 85
Immortals                 (Rel)     $12.5   -62%      $ 78-
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $12.0   -52%      $ 64
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $10.7   -57%      $165-
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $ 6.9   -46%      $ 71-
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $ 5.9   -47%      $ 34
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $ 2.9   -51%      $ 36
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 1.6   -59%      $ 37
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 1.0   -72%      $103

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Twilight Saga Film Track            Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Twilight                11.21.2008   $ 69.6    $192.8    $199.8

Twilight New Moon       11.20.2009   $142.8    $296.6    $413.2

Twilight Eclipse         6.30.2010   $ 64.8    $300.5    $397.9

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $217 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 opened to $125 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #46

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $217  Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 $139.5, Happy Feet Two $22
2010  $186  Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 1 $125     
2009  $250  Twilight New Moon $143, Blind Side $34

2008  $157  Twilight $70, Bolt $26
2007  $151  Enchanted $34, This Christmas $18, Hitman $13
Avg   $186 

Next Weekend
Opening next week are Arthur Christmas from Sony, The Muppets from Disney and Hugo from Paramount.  Those movies will be compared to Tangled ($49 million opening weekend), Burlesque ($12 million), Love and Other Drugs ($10 million) and Faster ($8.5 million).

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.