>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 is opening just short of $140 million in its first weekend, while Happy Feet Two looks like a $22 million opening. The top 12 films this weekend should do a combined $217 million, up 16% from the same weekend last year — a very good showing but not as strong as it was looking yesterday.
Among the second week films, Immortals has been downgraded ($78 million), as has Jack and Jill ($64 million). J. Edgar is holding steady at its previous estimate ($34 million).
Tower Heist drifted down a bit again ($71 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas is locking in on its final number ($36 million).
November 18-20, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 (Sum) $139.5 $292
Happy Feet Two (WB) $22.0 $ 85
Immortals (Rel) $12.5 -62% $ 78-
Jack and Jill (Sony) $12.0 -52% $ 64
Puss in Boots (DW/Par) $10.7 -57% $165-
Tower Heist (Uni) $ 6.9 -46% $ 71-
J. Edgar (WB) $ 5.9 -47% $ 34
A Very Harold & Kumar (WB) $ 2.9 -51% $ 36
In Time (Fox) $ 1.6 -59% $ 37
Paranormal Activity 3 (Par) $ 1.0 -72% $103
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Twilight Saga Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Twilight 11.21.2008 $ 69.6 $192.8 $199.8
Twilight New Moon 11.20.2009 $142.8 $296.6 $413.2
Twilight Eclipse 6.30.2010 $ 64.8 $300.5 $397.9
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $217 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 opened to $125 million).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #46
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $217 Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 $139.5, Happy Feet Two $22
2010 $186 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 1 $125
2009 $250 Twilight New Moon $143, Blind Side $34
2008 $157 Twilight $70, Bolt $26
2007 $151 Enchanted $34, This Christmas $18, Hitman $13
2007-10
Avg $186
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Arthur Christmas from Sony, The Muppets from Disney and Hugo from Paramount. Those movies will be compared to Tangled ($49 million opening weekend), Burlesque ($12 million), Love and Other Drugs ($10 million) and Faster ($8.5 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
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