November 6, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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So you love me, after all

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Puss in Boots almost matched its three-day opening in weekend two, bringing its 10-day total to $76 million and increasing the final domestic estimated total to a very good $170 million.  Tower Heist and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas opened in the #2 and #3 positions but will be forgotten quickly.  Overall, the weekend will be down over 25% from the same weekend last year.  A lone charismatic cat can only do so much.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Tower Heist ($77 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas ($44 million). 
Thanks to an amazing second weekend, Puss in Boots has been upgraded massively ($170 million), while In Time has been adjusted up ($40 million) and The Rum Diary is holding steady ($17 million). 
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Tower Heist will average $7,450 per theater (an above average but not noteworthy mark) at 3,367 theaters (for $25.1 million from Friday-Sunday).  A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas is opening with a below average $4,500 per theater at 2,875 theaters ($13.1 million).  Down an amazing low 3% in its second weekend, Puss in Boots will average $8,900 per theater at 3,693 locations for a stunning $33.0 million.    

November 4-6, 2011                  Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $33.0   – 3%      $170++
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $25.1             $ 77
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $13.1             $ 44
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 8.5   -53%      $113-
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 7.7   -36%      $ 40+
Footloose                 (Par)     $ 4.6   -17%      $ 55
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $ 3.4   -29%      $ 88 
The Rum Diary         (FilmDis)     $ 3.0   -42%      $ 17
Ides of March            (Sony)     $ 2.0   -29%      $ 43 Moneyball                (Sony)     $ 1.9   -20%      $ 76
The Three Musketeers   (Summit)     $ 1.7   -52%      $ 19

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $106 million total, down 26% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Megamind opened to almost $50 million and two others opened to a combined $52 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #44
     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $106  Tower Heist $25, A Very Harold & Kumar Chmas $13
2010  $143  Megamind $46, Due Date $33, For Colored Girls $19    
2009  $107  Christmas Carol $30 Men Stare Goats $13 4th Kind $12

2008  $128  Madagascar Escape Africa $63, Role Models $19
2007  $ 98  Fred Claus $18.5, Lions for Lambs $7
Avg   $119 

Next Weekend
Opening next week are Jack & Jill from Sony, Immortals from Relativity and J. Edgar from Warner Brothers.  Those movies will be compared to Unstoppable ($22.7 million opening weekend), Skyline ($11.7 million) and Morning Glory ($9.2 million).

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.