December 17, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between December 10 and December 16 grossed a solid $153 million, up 6% from the four-year average for the week and up 12% from the same week last year. 

The past six weeks are still 18% above the four-year average and 24% above the same six-week period last year.  

Year to date box office (now almost $9.6 billion for wide-release films) remains 6.7% above the average for the same period the last four years and 7.4% ahead of the same period last year.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through December 16, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #50 $137 $104 $153 +12% +6%
Past Six Weeks $992 $1,042 $1,231 +24% +18%
Year to Date $8,928 $8,990 $9,589 +7.4% +6.7%

The upcoming week (December 17-23) will be compared to a $262 million average for week 51 (ranking 8th out of 52), and December 24-30 will be compared against a $363 million average for week 52 (the #1 week of the year in terms of box office volume).


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

The Hobbit: Am Unexpected Journey came in officially at $84,617,303 for its opening three-day weekend, down only 0.2% from the Warner Brothers estimate Sunday.  


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Skyfall 287 97
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 285 97
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 284 97
Lincoln 133 86
Rise of the Guardians 89 74
Life of Pi 87 73
Red Dawn 47 50
Killing Them Softly 17 12
Playing for Keeps 13 8
The Collection 8 2


Weekend Predictions for December 21-23 should be posted late Tuesday.  This weekend features two films opening early on Wednesday: The Guilt Trip (comedy from Paramount) and a 3D re-lease of 2001’s Monsters, Inc (from Disney/ Pixar).  Two more wide-release films open Friday:  Jack Reacher (crime drama from Paramount) and This Is 40 (comedy from Universal).  Paramount has managed to get some badly needed publicity for Jack Reacher by quite loudly announcing the cancellation of two screenings of the film out of sensitivity for the Newton, CT killings.  One more film opens Friday (but only at a half-hearted 800 theaters):  Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away (from Paramount, completing a very unusual weekend trifecta from one studio).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.