November 19, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between November 12 and November 18 grossed an amazing $300 million, up 28% from the four-year average for the week and up 24% from the same week last year.   

The past six weeks are now 13% above the four-year average and 21% above the same six-week period last year.  

Year to date box office (now almost $8.9 billion for wide-release films) is 6.1% above the average for the same period the last four years and 6.3% ahead of the same period last year.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through November 18, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #46 $242 $235 $300 +24% +28%
Past Six Weeks $918 $987 $1,114 +21% +13%
Year to Date $8,338 $8,352 $8,864 +6% +6%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

Yet another round of very accurate studio estimates this weekend.

Breaking Dawn Part 2 came in officially at $141,067,634 for its opening weekend, down only 0.2% from the Summit estimate Sunday.  

Lincoln came in at $21,049,406 in its first wide weekend, only 0.2% above of the Disney Sunday estimate.


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 285 97
Skyfall 264 97
Wreck-It Ralph 179 93
Argo 107 82
Lincoln 89 74
Flight 87 73
Paranormal Activity 4 51 51
Sinister 49 51
Here Comes the Boom 45 49
Cloud Atlas 28 27
Alex Cross 24 21
Man with the Iron Fists 15 10
Seven Psychopaths 15 10
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D 15 10
Fun Size 9 3
Chasing Mavericks 6 1


Weekend Predictions for November 23-25 (as well as the Wednesday-Thursday warm-up period for the long holiday weekend) should be posted late Tuesday or early Wednesday.  This weekend features opening of Rise of the Guardians (from Paramount/DreamWorks), Life of Pi (from 20th Century Fox) and Red Dawn (from FilmDistrict).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.