October 16, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 8 and October 14 grossed a decent $167 million, up 7% from the four-year average for the week and up 44% from the same week last year.   

The past six weeks remain 1% above the four-year average box office average now 4% above the same six-week period last year.  Year to date box office (now over $7.9 billion for wide-release films) is running 5% above both the average for the same period the last four years and last year at this time.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through October 14, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #41 $116 $157 $167 +44% +7%
Past Six Weeks $737 $761 $770 +4% +1%
Year to Date $7,535 $7,522 $7,917 +5% +5%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

Argo came in officially at $19,458,109 for its opening weekend, down 3.3% from the Warner Brothers estimate Sunday morning — the biggest miss of the weekend, as the studio stretched to claim the film opened with more $20 million.  

Sinister came in at $18,007,634 in its opening weekend, down 1.3% from the Sunday estimate.

Here Comes the Boom opened officially with $11,816,596, down 1.5% from the Sony estimate.


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Hotel Transylvania 149 89
Taken 2 135 87
Pitch Perfect 73 65
Looper 72 65
Argo 66 63
Sinister 50 51
End of Watch 43 47
Finding Nemo 3D 43 47
Frankenweenie 43 47
Resident Evil: Retribution 40 44
Trouble with the Curve 37 40
Here Comes the Boom 35 35
House at the End of the Street 32 31
Seven Psychopaths 21 16
The Master 18 13
Dredd 3D 13 8
Won’t Back Down 5 1


Weekend Predictions for October 19-21 should be posted Wednesday.  This weekend features the openings of Paranormal Activity 4 (horror) and Alex Cross (crime thriller).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.