October 22, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 15 and October 21 grossed a decent $158 million, up 4% from the four-year average for the week and up 13% from the same week last year.   

The past six weeks are now 4% above the four-year average box office average and fully 9% above the same six-week period last year.  Year to date box office (now over $8.0 billion for wide-release films) is still running 5% above both the average for the same period the last four years and last year at this time.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through October 21, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #42 $140 $153 $158 +13% +4%
Past Six Weeks $756 $794 $824 +9% +4%
Year to Date $7,675 $7,675 $8,075 +5% +5%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

As is usually the case, actual opening weekend figures released today did not look as rosy as the estimates released by the studios Sunday morning.

Paranormal Activity 4 came in officially at $29,003,866 for its opening weekend, down 4.0% from the Paramount estimate Sunday, as the studio stretched to claim the film opened with more $30 million.  

Alex Cross came in at $11,396,768 in its opening weekend, down 3.0% from the Sunday estimate.

Argo, in contrast, opened officially with $16,445,475 in its second weekend, down a more reasonable 1.1% from the Warner Brothers estimate.


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Hotel Transylvania 146 88
Taken 2 133 86
Argo 92 75
Looper 70 64
Pitch Perfect 69 64
Paranormal Activity 4 62 60
Sinister 51 51
Here Comes the Boom 44 48
End of Watch 41 45
Resident Evil: Retribution 41 45
Frankenweenie 40 44
Finding Nemo 3D 39 43
Trouble with the Curve 36 36
House at the End of the Street 31 29
Alex Cross 27 26
Seven Psychopaths 20 16
The Master 17 12
Dredd 3D 13 7


Weekend Predictions for October 26-28 should be posted Wednesday.  This weekend features the openings of Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (horror from Open Road Films), Fun Size (comedy from Paramount), Chasing Mavericks (sports drama from Fox) and Cloud Atlas (Warner Brothers).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.