Based on Friday’s  and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #50 of 2013 looks like $139 million for the top 12 films from Friday-Sunday, not as strong as we had forecast and down $5 million from yesterday’s estimate but still up double digits in terms of percent increase over comparable weekends the past several years.   Opening at […]

  OPENINGS:  FIFTY SHADES FREED (Perfect World/Universal) declined a mild 17% from Fifty Shades Darker to $38.8M, suggesting that Freed will end up around $95M in the US  That wouldn’t be great compared to roughly $150M in production/marketing costs, but the Fifty Shades franchise has always made the bulk of its revenue overseas, and that’s […]

  OPENINGS:  3-day weekend totals were largely in line with where they were headed on Friday night.  COCO (Pixar/Disney) settled in at $49M ($71.2M since Wednesday).  On a 3-day basis, that was almost exactly the same as Tangled‘s $48.8M, suggesting that Coco should land at $200M in the US.  That would put it in the […]

  OPENINGS:  TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: OUT OF THE SHADOWS (Nickelodeon/Movie Media Group/Alibaba/Paramount) opened 46% below the TMNT reboot 2 years ago at $35.3M.  That suggests a $100M US total, and with $250M+ in production/marketing costs, the bulk of that will have to be recovered overseas.  So far, it’s earned $34M in 40 territories, not […]

  OPENINGS:  The only new arrival this weekend certain of profitability is THE CONJURING 2 (New Line/RatPac/Warners).  It’s already earned $40.4M in the US (just lightly behind the first Conjuring‘s $41.9M opening) and $50M in 44 overseas markets, and although horror movies and sequels are usually frontloaded, even in a worst cast scenario it will […]

  OPENINGS: KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE (MARV/20th) took the weekend, but at $39M it was below Fox’s minimal target number of $40M.  Since sequels burn out faster than initial films in a series, Golden Circle will probably end up around $100-120M in the US, compared to $128M for The Secret Service, and that’s on higher […]

  OPENINGS:  Although unquestionably huge, and sure to be enormously profitable against roughly $250M in production/marketing costs, DEADPOOL 2 (20th) opened on the low end of expectations, about 5% below the first Deadpool at $125M.  The sequel has the very reasonable explanation that its forebear had the advantage of a Sunday that was part of […]

  OPENINGS:  DESPICABLE ME 3 (Illumination/Universal) is the latest franchise to underdeliver this summer, with a 3-day studio estimate of $75.4M in the US.  That’s far below the $115.7M opening of Minions, and it compares badly with Despicable 2 as well, since that title earned $83.5M over its first weekend after having already banked $59.6M […]