November 29, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Thanksgiving week lagged behind the comparable week last year by 8%, bringing the year to date tally 3.7% behind 2010’s total at this time.  Final numbers for all the Thanksgiving box office are also available below.       

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between November 21 and November 27 grossed $260 million, down 8% from the same very good week in 2010 but up 11% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 3.7% from the same period last year (a little worse compared to last week, when it was down -3.5%).    

All Films November 21-27
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #47     $283    $235    $260    – 8%

Year to Date $9280   $8792   $8940   -3.7%   +1.7%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 $302 million (98 percentile)
Puss in Boots $166 million (90 percentile)
The Muppets $121 million (84 percentile)
Paranormal Activity 3 $102 million (79 percentile)
Immortals $87 million (73 percentile) Tower Heist $82 million (72 percentile)
Happy Feet Two $78 million (71 percentile)
Jack and Jill $77 million (70 percentile)

Arthur Christmas $51 million (56 percentile)

Hugo $49 million (54 percentile)
J. Edgar $39 million (46 percentile)
The Descendants $36 million (43 percentile)

A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas $36 million (43 percentile)
The Three Musketeers $20 million (21 percentile) 

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday’s Studio Projections 

The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday’s box office) were slightly optimistic for Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 ($300,000 higher than the actual weekend number reported today) and The Muppets (also $300,000 higher than the actual).  The rest of the studio projections were fairly close to the actuals for the holdover movies.    

      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      November 21-27             Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)   $42.0    $41.7     $302+
The Muppets               (Dis)   $29.5    $29.2     $121
Happy Feet Two             (WB)   $13.4    $13.4     $ 78-
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)   $12.7    $12.1     $ 51
Hugo                      (Par)   $11.4    $11.4     $ 49
Jack and Jill            (Sony)   $10.3    $10.0     $ 77+
Immortals                 (Rel)   $ 8.8    $ 8.9     $ 87+

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.