>Year to date box office is now back down to -4.0% versus the comparable period last year, similar to where the comparison was back around Labor Day. As late as mid-April the box office total was -20% behind 2010, but by early June the comparison had dropped to -9% behind the 2010 pace. In mid-August the comparison had dropped to -4%, where it bounced around through Labor Day. Things looked good again by mid-October when the total box office was -3.2% versus 2010, until the comparison started to edge up again back toward -4%. Unless a few holiday films really hit big, 2011 will probably finish -3.5 to -4.5% behind 2010.
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between October 31 and November 6 grossed a very weak $138 million, down 20% versus the same week in 2010 and down 10% from the average comparable week the past four years. Year to date, all films are now down 4.0% from the same period last year (back to where the comparison was at Labor Day).
All Films Oct 31-Nov 6
(millions) 4yr vs vs
2010 Avg 2011 2010 Avg
Week #44 $172 $154 $138 -20% -10%
Year to Date $8622 $8162 $8278
-4.0% +1.4%
Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.
Puss in Boots $170 million (91 percentile)
Paranormal Activity 3 $113 million (82 percentile)
Real Steel $88 million (73 percentile)
Tower Heist $74 million (69 percentile)
Footloose $55 million (58 percentile)
A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas $43 million (51 percentile)
The Ides of March $42 million (49 percentile)
50/50 $36 million (43 percentile)
Courageous $35 million (42 percentile)
Dream House $21 million (23 percentile)
The Three Musketeers $19 million (19 percentile)
The Thing $15 million (13 percentile)
Johnny English Reborn $9 million (5 percentile)
Weekend Actuals vs Sunday’s Studio Projections
The weekend Studio Projection (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday’s box office) for Tower Heist was overly optimistic to the tune of over one million dollars, while A Very Harold & Kumar was over-estimated by a more credible $200,000. In contrast, Puss in Boots almost exactly nailed the estimate.
Weekend of Sunday Monday Showbuzz
Oct 31-Nov 6 Studio Weekend Domestic
(millions) Estimate Actual Total
Puss in Boots (DW/Par) $33.0 $33.1 $170+
Tower Heist (Uni) $25.1 $24.0 $ 74
A Very Harold & Kumar (WB) $13.1 $12.9 $ 43
Paranormal Activity 3 (Par) $ 8.5 $ 8.3 $113
In Time (Fox) $ 7.7 $ 7.5 $ 39
Footloose (Par) $ 4.6 $ 4.5 $ 55
Real Steel (Dis) $ 3.4 $ 3.4 $ 88
The Rum Diary (FilmDis) $ 3.0 $ 2.9 $ 17
Ides of March (Sony) $ 2.0 $ 1.9 $ 42
Moneyball (Sony) $ 1.9 $ 1.8 $ 76
The Three Musketeers (Summit) $ 1.7 $ 1.7 $ 19
The International Box Office Numbers are available here.
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