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As detailed in Mitch Metcalf’s Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year’s Day wasn’t the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.PARAMOUNT: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – GHOST PROTOCOL‘s Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it’s likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end. THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M. YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it’ll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.
WARNERS: SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it’ll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total. NEW YEAR’S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news–a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today–but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.
FOX: ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: CHIPWRECKED really faltered–instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today. That’ll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors). WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.
DISNEY: WAR HORSE didn’t go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected–it went down 27%. Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today. If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point. Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we’ll see about that one, too.
SONY: The studio’s projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was–the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%. The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.
FOX SEARCHLIGHT: THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today. That’ll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that’s nothing special. SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today. It’s still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.
WEINSTEIN COMPANY: THE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend. THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch. MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.
FOCUS: TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn’t quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that’s still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4. PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn’t do better than $16K average over 4 days.
SONY CLASSICS: The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.
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