Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #42 of 2014 looks like a decent $123 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little lower than yesterday’s early estimate ($126 million) but still 11% above the norm for this weekend ($111 million).
Opening at 3,173 theaters, Fury from Sony grossed $8.8 million Friday and $9.1 million Saturday, now on track for a $23.5 million opening three-day weekend (solidly below our $30.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a somewhat above average $7,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is supportive (80% positive overall and 68% positive with top critics). Fury is headed for $75 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,069 theaters, The Book of Life from 20th Century Fox grossed $4.9 million Friday and $6.9 million Saturday, now on track for a $17.0 million opening three-day weekend (near our $16.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a barely above average $5,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is positive (79% positive overall and 80% positive with top critics). The Book of Life is headed for $80 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,936 theaters, The Best of Me from Relativity grossed $4.1 million Friday and $3.8 million Saturday, now on track for a $10.2 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $13.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a well below average $3,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hostile (7% positive overall and 5% positive with top critics). The Best of Me is headed for $23 million total domestic.
Expanding to 608 theaters, Men, Women & Children from Paramount grossed $99,000 Friday and $128,000 Saturday, is on track for a $320,000 quasi-wide opening three-day weekend (not forecast). The film is pacing toward a really disastrous $530 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is negative (29% positive overall and a similar 29% with top critics). Men, Women & Children is headed for maybe $1.2 million total domestic.
Gone Girl is headed for $17.8 million this weekend (down 33% from last weekend and slightly below our $19.0 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted up to $162 million. Dracula Untold is headed for $9.9 million this weekend (down 58% from last weekend and below our $11.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dracula Untold has been adjusted down to $58 million. Alexander and the Terrible…Day is headed for $12.0 million this weekend (down 34% from last weekend and above our $11.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Alexander has been adjusted to $69 million.
| Weekend 42: October 17-19, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Fury | Sony | [30.0] | 25.1 | 23.5 | 8.8–9.1 | 75 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [19.0] | 17.9 | 17.8 | 5.6–7.8 | 162 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | [16.5] | 17.5 | 17.0 | 4.9–6.9 | 80 | |
| Alexander and the Terrible… | Dis | [11.4] | 13.4 | 12.0 | 3.2–5.2 | 69 | |
| The Best of Me | Rel | [13.0] | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.1–3.8 | 23 | |
| Dracula Untold | Uni | [11.4] | 9.4 | 9.9 | 2.9–4.3 | 58 | |
| The Judge | WB | [8.4] | 7.8 | 7.9 | 2.5–3.5 | 46 | |
| Annabelle | WB | [7.9] | 7.6 | 7.9 | 2.5–3.6 | 91 | |
| The Equalizer | Sony | [5.4] | 5.3 | 5.4 | 1.6–2.5 | 106 | |
| The Maze Runner | Fox | [4.7] | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.3–2.1 | 103 | |
| Addicted | LG/Sum | [3.7] | 3.6 | n/a | 1.1–n/a | 17 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | [3.9] | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.7–n/a | 56 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $123 million total Friday-Sunday, up 11% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 31% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 41 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $123 | Fury $23.5, The Book of Life $17.0, The Best of Me $10.2 | |
| 2013 | $93 | Carrie $16.1, Escape Plan $9.9, The Fifth Estate $1.7 | |
| 2012 | $121 | Paranormal Activity 4 $29.0, Alex Cross $11.4 | |
| 2011 | $109 | Paranormal Activity 3 $52.6, Three Musketeers $8.7 | |
| 2010 | $120 | Paranormal Activity 2 $40.7, Hereafter $12.0 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $111 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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