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August 10, 2014
 

Weekend Studio Estimates AUGUST 8-10

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #32 of 2014 still looks like a very good $173 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above our forecast ($152 million) and 26% above the norm for this weekend ($138 million).

Opening at 3,845 theaters, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles from Paramount grossed $25.6 million through Friday and $22.1 million Saturday, now on track for a $65.0 million opening weekend (well above our $38.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good three-day average of $16,900 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (20% positive overall and 10% positive with top critics). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is headed for $180 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,434 theaters, Into the Storm from Warner Brothers grossed $6.5 million Friday and $6.4 million Saturday, now on track for an $18.0 million opening weekend (slightly above our $15.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre three-day average of $5,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is uniformly weak (20% positive overall and 20% positive with top critics). Into the Storm is headed for $48 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,023 theaters, The Hundred-Foot Journey from Disney grossed $3.6 million Friday and $4.3 million Saturday, now on track for an $11.1 million opening weekend (slightly above our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre three-day average of $5,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mildly positive (62% positive overall and 69% positive with top critics). The Hundred-Foot Journey is headed for $36 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,072 theaters, Step Up All In  from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $2.9 million Friday and $2.1 million Saturday, now on track for a $6.6 million opening weekend (still below our $9.7 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very weak three-day average of $3,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is fairly low (44% positive overall and 44% positive with top critics). Step Up All In is headed for $20 million total domestic.

Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $41.5 million this weekend (down 56% from last weekend and somewhat below our $44.3 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy has been adjusted slightly to $280 million.  Lucy is headed for $9.3 million this weekend (down 49% from last weekend slightly above our $8.8 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Lucy has been adjusted to $122 million. Get On Up is headed for $5.0 million this weekend (down 63% from last weekend and well below our $7.6 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Get On Up has been adjusted down to $35 million.          

Weekend 32: August 8-10, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Par [38.5] 64.3 65.0 25.6–22.1 180
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis [44.3] 42.2 41.5 12.3–16.9 280
Into the Storm WB [15.5] 17.8 18.0 6.5–6.4 48
The Hundred-Foot Journey Dis [9.5] 11.1 11.1 3.6–4.3 36
Lucy Uni [8.8] 9.2 9.3 2.8–3.8 122
Step Up All In LG/Sum [9.7] 6.3 6.6 2.9–2.1 20
Hercules Par [5.0] 6.0 5.7 1.7–2.3 76
Get On Up Uni [7.6] 4.9 5.0 1.5–2.2 35
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox [4.8] 4.4 4.4 1.2–1.8 215
Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis [3.7] 2.4 2.4 .72–.99 61
The Purge: Anarchy Uni [—] 2.3 2.3 .73–.91 74
A Most Wanted Man Road [—] 2.2 2.2 0.6–n/a n/a
Boyhood Par [—] 1.9 2.1 0.5–n/a n/a

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are still looking like $173 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 22% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 32 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $173 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $65.0, Into the Storm $18.0, Hundred-Foot Journey $11.1
2013 $142 Elysium $29.8, We’re the Millers $26.4, Planes $22.2, Percy Jackson $14.4
2012 $133 Bourne Legacy $38.1, The Campaign $26.6, Hope Springs $14.7
2011 $143 The Help $26.0, Final Destination 5 $18.0, 30 Minutes or Less $13.3
2010 $132 The Other Guys $35.5, Step Up 3D $15.8
Avg 2010-13 $138

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.