Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #43 of 2013 now looks like $95 million for the top 12 films, a shade under yesterday’s estimate but still up 11% to 17% from the same weekend in recent years.
Opening at 3,336 theaters Friday, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa from Paramount grossed $12.6 million Friday and $11.5 million Saturday, now on track for a $32.0 million opening weekend (now somewhat above the $30.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $9,600 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is just moderate (62% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 55% positive with top critics). Bad Grandpa is now headed for $85 million total domestic, below the $117.2 million total domestic for Jackass 3-D (October 2010) but above the $72.8 million for Jackass: Number Two (September 2006) and the $64.4 million for Jackass: The Movie (October 2002).
Opening at 3,044 theaters Friday, The Counselor from Twentieth Century Fox grossed $3.2 million Friday and $2.9 million Saturday, now pacing toward an $8.0 million opening weekend (well below our $13.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a dismal three-day average of $2,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (36% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 22% positive with top critics). The Counselor is headed for perhaps $18 million total domestic.
Gravity has started to stabilize at $260 million total domestic, and Captain Phillips is locking in at around $104 million domestic.
| Weekend 43: October 25-27, 2013 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri– Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | [30.5] | 30.0 | 32.0 | 12.6–11.5 | 85 | |
| Gravity | WB | [21.5] | 21.0 | 20.3 | 6.2–9.1 | 260 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | [11.6] | 12.0 | 11.8 | 3.6–5.2 | 104 | |
| The Counselor | Fox | [13.5] | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.2–2.9 | 18 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 | Sony | [6.2] | 6.3 | 6.1 | 1.6–2.9 | 115 | |
| Carrie | Sony | [8.2] | 6.0 | 5.9 | 1.9–2.6 | 35 | |
| Escape Plan | LG/Sum | [4.9] | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.3–1.9 | 26 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | [2.9] | 2.1 | 2.2 | .62–.92 | n/a | |
| Enough Said | Fox S | [1.5] | 1.6 | 1.6 | .46–.73 | n/a | |
| Prisoners | WB | [1.2] | 1.1 | 1.1 | .31–.48 | 63 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $95 million total Friday-Sunday, slightly below yesterday’s estimate ($96 million) but still up 11% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 17% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 43 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $95 | Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa $32.0, The Counselor $8.0 | |
| 2012 | $81 | Cloud Atlas $9.6, Silent Hill: Revolution 3D $8.0, Fun Size $4.0 | |
| 2011 | $94 | Puss in Boots $34.1, In Time $12.1, The Rum Diary $5.1 | |
| 2010 | $85 | Saw 3D $22.5 | |
| 2009 | $83 | Michael Jackson’s This Is It $23.2 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $86 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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