October 14, 2012


The weekend still looks like a very good $123 million for the top 12 films, a little better than it looked yesterday.  Argo and Sinister flipped places in the weekend rankings.  Argo opened with $5.93 million Friday and jumped to $8.75 million Saturday.  A conservative estimate of $5.4 million today would put the 1979 Iranian Hostage rescue drama over $20 million for its opening weekend, comfortably above the $16.5 million ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast.

In contrast, Sinister opened with $7.4 million Friday before declining to $6.8 million Saturday and an estimated $3.9 million Sunday, putting it on a track toward an $18.25 million opening weekend (and not the $19 million estimated based on Friday’s numbers).

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Argo ($68 million), Sinister ($51 million), Here Comes the Boom ($35 million), Seven Psychopaths ($21 million) and Atlas Shrugged Part II ($3.5 million).

Second week films:  Taken 2 ($137 million, very close to the $138 million initial estimate last week) and Frankenweenie ($43 million, nearly identical to the $42 million estimate last week).

Third week films: Hotel Transylvania ($149 million, up from$142-$145 million the last two weeks), Looper ($73 million, near last week’s $72 million and up significantly from an initial $64 million) and Pitch Perfect ($73 million, up from $68 million last week and up sharply from the initial $27 million estimate).

Fourth week films:  End of Watch ($43 million, down a bit from $46-$48 million the prior three weeks), Trouble with the Curve ($37 million, continuing a downward trend from $45 million in week one, $42 million in week two and $39 million last week), House at the End of the Street ($32 million, similar to $33 million the prior two weeks and up from the $24 million estimate in week one), and The Master ($18 million, down a bit from $20 million last week, $19 million two weeks ago and down from the initial $25 million estimate).

Weekend 41: Oct 12-14, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Taken 2 Fox -55% 22.5 137
Argo WB 20.1 68
Sinister LG/Summit 18.3 51
Hotel Transylvania Sony/ Col -36% 17.3 149
Here Comes the Boom Sony/ Col 12.0 35
Pitch Perfect Universal -37% 9.3 73
Frankenweenie Disney -39% 7.0 43
Looper Sony/ Tri -48% 6.3 73
Seven Psychopaths CBS 4.3 21
Perks of Being a Wallflower LG/Summit +38% 2.2 n/a
Atlas Shrugged Part II Atlas 1.7 3
End of Watch Open Road -57% 1.7 43


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking even stronger than yesterday ($123 million total Friday-Sunday), now up 20% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 59% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #41 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $123 Argo, $20, Sinister $18, Here Comes the Boom $12, Seven Psychopaths $4
2011 $77 Footloose $16, The Thing $8.5, The Big Year $3
2010 $120 Jackass 3-D $50, Red $22
2009 $128 Where Wild Things Are $33, Paranormal Activity $20, Law Abiding Citizen $21
2008 $85 Max Payne $18, W $10.5, Secret Life of Bees $10.5
Avg 2008-11 $102

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are a ton of films:  Paranormal Activity 4 from Paramount (horror) and Alex Cross from Summit (crime thriller starring Edward Burns).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.6 million opening weekend), The Three Musketeers ($8.7 million) and Johnny English Reborn ($3.8 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.