The weekend still looks like a very good $123 million for the top 12 films, a little better than it looked yesterday. Argo and Sinister flipped places in the weekend rankings. Argo opened with $5.93 million Friday and jumped to $8.75 million Saturday. A conservative estimate of $5.4 million today would put the 1979 Iranian Hostage rescue drama over $20 million for its opening weekend, comfortably above the $16.5 million ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast.
In contrast, Sinister opened with $7.4 million Friday before declining to $6.8 million Saturday and an estimated $3.9 million Sunday, putting it on a track toward an $18.25 million opening weekend (and not the $19 million estimated based on Friday’s numbers).
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Argo ($68 million), Sinister ($51 million), Here Comes the Boom ($35 million), Seven Psychopaths ($21 million) and Atlas Shrugged Part II ($3.5 million).
Second week films: Taken 2 ($137 million, very close to the $138 million initial estimate last week) and Frankenweenie ($43 million, nearly identical to the $42 million estimate last week).
Third week films: Hotel Transylvania ($149 million, up from$142-$145 million the last two weeks), Looper ($73 million, near last week’s $72 million and up significantly from an initial $64 million) and Pitch Perfect ($73 million, up from $68 million last week and up sharply from the initial $27 million estimate).
Fourth week films: End of Watch ($43 million, down a bit from $46-$48 million the prior three weeks), Trouble with the Curve ($37 million, continuing a downward trend from $45 million in week one, $42 million in week two and $39 million last week), House at the End of the Street ($32 million, similar to $33 million the prior two weeks and up from the $24 million estimate in week one), and The Master ($18 million, down a bit from $20 million last week, $19 million two weeks ago and down from the initial $25 million estimate).
| Weekend 41: Oct 12-14, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Taken 2 | Fox | -55% | 22.5 | 137 | |
| Argo | WB | 20.1 | 68 | ||
| Sinister | LG/Summit | 18.3 | 51 | ||
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony/ Col | -36% | 17.3 | 149 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony/ Col | 12.0 | 35 | ||
| Pitch Perfect | Universal | -37% | 9.3 | 73 | |
| Frankenweenie | Disney | -39% | 7.0 | 43 | |
| Looper | Sony/ Tri | -48% | 6.3 | 73 | |
| Seven Psychopaths | CBS | 4.3 | 21 | ||
| Perks of Being a Wallflower | LG/Summit | +38% | 2.2 | n/a | |
| Atlas Shrugged Part II | Atlas | 1.7 | 3 | ||
| End of Watch | Open Road | -57% | 1.7 | 43 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking even stronger than yesterday ($123 million total Friday-Sunday), now up 20% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 59% from the same weekend last year.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #41 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $123 | Argo, $20, Sinister $18, Here Comes the Boom $12, Seven Psychopaths $4 | |
| 2011 | $77 | Footloose $16, The Thing $8.5, The Big Year $3 | |
| 2010 | $120 | Jackass 3-D $50, Red $22 | |
| 2009 | $128 | Where Wild Things Are $33, Paranormal Activity $20, Law Abiding Citizen $21 | |
| 2008 | $85 | Max Payne $18, W $10.5, Secret Life of Bees $10.5 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $102 | ||
Opening Next Week
Opening wide next weekend are a ton of films: Paranormal Activity 4 from Paramount (horror) and Alex Cross from Summit (crime thriller starring Edward Burns). These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.6 million opening weekend), The Three Musketeers ($8.7 million) and Johnny English Reborn ($3.8 million).
International grosses will be updated as available.
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