September 17, 2012


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between September 10 and September 16 grossed a piss-poor $93 million, down 19% from the four-year average for the week and down 21% from the same week last year.  We have to go back to the same week in 2004 to find a worse performance ($83 million for September 13-19, when Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow starring Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow and Angelina Jolie topped the box office….yikes).  The past six weeks are still down 4% from the four-year average box office average but down a more significant 7% from the same six-week period last year.  Year to date box office (now over $7.3 billion for wide-release films) continues to cling to a 5% gain from the average for the past four years but is now only 4% ahead of last year.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through September 16, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #37 $118 $115 $93 -21% -19%
Past Six Weeks $938 $900 $869 -7% -4%
Year to Date $7,037 $6,997 $7,344 +4% +5%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

Resident Evil: Retribution came in officially at $21,052,227 today for its opening weekend, down an insignificant 0.2% from the Sony estimate for the weekend Sunday morning.  

Finding Nemo 3D came in at $16,687,773 in its opening weekend, down 4.7% from the Disney estimate — a pretty bad forecast.

The Master, playing at only five theaters in NY and LA, ended up with $736,311 for the weekend — a stunning and record-breaking $147,262 per theater, about one thousand times the theater average for Oogieloves from Kenn Viselman Presents.  The last time we mention either that film or that distributor.


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Bourne Legacy 116 83
The Campaign 90 74
Expendables 2 88 73
Finding Nemo 3D 68 64
Hope Springs 66 63
ParaNorman 56 56
Resident Evil: Retribution 52 53
The Possession 52 52
Odd Life of Timothy Green 51 51
Lawless 41 45
2016 Obama’s America 35 36
Sparkle 23 20
Premium Rush 22 19
Hit and Run 15 11
The Words 12 7


Weekend Predictions September 21-23 should be posted Wednesday.  This weekend features the openings of Trouble with the Curve (oooh, watch Clint Eastwood be, well, himself), End of Watch (oooh, watch Jake Gyllenhaal pretend to be a convincing cop), House at the End of the Street (oooh, watch Jennifer Lawrence take a step backward in her career path) and Dredd (oooh, watch a remake of a comic that should have been left alone).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.