[UPDATE: The predictions for the films opening this weekend have been revised, reflecting corrections to some key computations.] Weekend #43 of 2014 is looking like $100 million $109 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 23% from the norm for this weekend. Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday (just below the 2,886 average theater […]

  OPENINGS:  Here’s a telling stat for TOMORROWLAND (Disney):  although the movie was aimed squarely at a family audience, only 30% of the people who showed up were in that demo.  Instead, 60% of the audience was over 25, meaning the older George Clooney fans.  That suggests that Disney marketing wasn’t able to get the […]

  OPENINGS:  As expected, FANTASTIC FOUR (20th) plunged 25% on Saturday as word of mouth caught up with it (by comparison, Ant-Man lost just 14% on its 2d day of release), giving it a sad $26.2M weekend.  Things didn’t get any better when international was factored in, as the franchise-killer managed just $34.1M in 43 […]

  This was never going to be much of a box office weekend, and the east coast snowstorms certainly won’t help.  According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, all 3 of the newcomers are closely packed with $3.5-4M Fridays and probable $9.5-11M weekends, so word of mouth could put any of them ahead. The early leader, […]

Weekend #16 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 15-17, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection The Jungle Book Dis PG 92% 78.0 235 625 860 Barbershop: The Next Cut WB PG13 75% 20.5 75 […]

Weekend #29 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 15-17, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection Ghostbusters Sony PG13 75% 53.0 150 140 290 The Infiltrator Broad Green R 57% 5.0 20 15 35 Note: […]

  Both of the weekend’s major openings cost too much for the amount they’re currently earning.  MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN (TSG/20th) has production/marketing costs of $225M+, and preliminary numbers at Deadline have its opening day at roughly $9M (including $1.2M from Thursday night).  That suggests a $25-27M weekend, which would be an even […]

  OPENINGS:  As we had forecast on Friday night, the margin of victory for the weekend box office was razor-thin, and we won’t really know who won until final numbers are released tomorrow.  For now, HIDDEN FIGURES (20th) is $172K below Rogue One at $21.8M, but Disney’s Rogue One projection relies on a speculatively strong […]