After its history-making $120.5M opening day, there were two pre-existing Saturday models that STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (Lucasfilm/Disney) could have followed.  The final Harry Potter was so front-loaded that it crashed by 53% from Friday to Saturday.  On the other hand, Jurassic World gently declined by 15%, similar to the 14% drop for […]

Weekend #25 of 2014 is looking like a limp $146 million for the top 12 films this weekend, 10% below the norm for this weekend and 37% below the same weekend last year, which featured two strong openers (Monsters University and World War Z).  This year’s two major openers are not the stuff of commercial greatness. Opening […]

Weekend #32 of 2014 is looking like $152 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 11%from the norm for this weekend and the second up weekend in a row after six straight down weekends. Opening at over 3,700 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Teenage Mutant […]

Weekend #30 of 2015 is looking like $170 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below). Pixels from Sony should open with a $37.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are dreadful: 11% positive overall so far. Pixels is on track for around $95 million domestic. […]

  OPENINGS:  Could JUSTICE LEAGUE (RatPac/DC/Warners) actually lose money?  That possibility exists after a worldwide opening (except Japan, not a huge superhero market) that hit only $281.5M, a number that sounds big only when it isn’t put up against $450M in production/marketing costs, not to mention other sunk expenses like distribution costs and interest.  In […]

  OPENINGS:  Let’s be clear:  the decision to greenlight a $100M production budget for IN THE HEART OF THE SEA (Village Roadshow/Warners)–a period whaling adventure that features about 10 minutes of a CG whale and is otherwise mostly (spoiler alert) about the cast starving and suffering–was fundamentally insane.  Even if the film had been good, […]

  We’re in the 2-week void between Thanksgiving and the Awakening of the Force, and the low-budget KRAMPUS (Legendary/Universal) is the weekend’s only major studio arrival.  According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, it’s performing a tad beyond expectations with $6.25M on Friday.  Given the quick burn-out for horror movies, that should mean a $13-15M weekend, […]

  OPENINGS:  Just about everything about the release of TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR (Variance/AMC Theaters) has been unique, and that includes the fact that the theater chain, a first-time distributor, has announced the weekend box office as $95-97M for now, with a definite number to be issued tomorrow.  Even at the high end, that’s […]